canadian economy still moving

i belive the economy will be shown to be growing at a reasonable rate overall. the Quebec election will allow the canadian dollar to strengthen promoting the possibility of stable or lower rates - while inflation if it continues will prompt higher rates - therefore the 2 forces should result in relatively stable rates. - time will tell....keep your eyes on the government bond market.
Securitization and market backed securities have helped to keep interest rates low - due to the provision of a large pool of mortgage funds - assuming no major surprises in the economy this should continue.

turbulence to continue

the provincial government of ontario - came out with their budget last week - no major surprises.
this week the election will be held in quebec - all signs point to a minority government which will possibly cause some upheaval in the canadian dollar.
time will tell - interest rates will hold steady - but the bond rates may move up a bit.
No major panic - just a wait and see position

so little from so much

well the new budget has come out - not much to report for the average canadian investor. the capital gains tax wasnt mentioned - very little in the way of tax reductions - the majority of the funding went to the provinces especially quebec - in order to appease them in the event of an election - very political budget.
Then comes the inflation report -as outlined previously we have more inflation than meets the eye - but last month the major increase was housing and fuel - this was due to a blip in the bond market - possibly to slow the mortgages during rrsp season..?.....and the gas shortage due to a strike and refinery fire -combined with colder weather...now the panic begins with speculation of the bank of canada possibly raising rates.
One report does not make a trend - i believe we will see inflatin settle down a bit and the boc will likely keep rates constant -
greygoose out

budget - fed - inflation - subprime......

The next week should be extremely interesting - we have seen the recent volatility on wall stree and the world markets - triggered by overseas -china / subprime mortgages in the US.
This week the fed will finish 2 days of meetings and the stock market will react depending upon what the Fed Chair says. We will also see a Canadian federal budget and the possibility of a spring election. This combined with the potential of inflation in the US and yet the need to reduce rates in order to keep the economy from recesssion - The markets are in a real
conundrum...time will tell what happens - but I am betting the US will ensure they are vigilant for inflation and will try to keep rates constant -
Canada does not have the same housing market but i still think we have more inflation than meets the eye - the economy will show itself to be slowing and we will see lower rates over the next year......time will tell - keep your eyes and ears to the ground - payoff your debts and keep some cash for emergencies
greygoose out....

Thursday morning -

Its thursday morning - rates have softened and the 5 year mortgage rate is now 4.99-5.04%
the bonds are holding steady with the 5 year canada bond at 3.895%
10 year bonds are at 3.992
there is very little spread in rates - the yield curve is virtually flat.
time will tell - what will happen but a major increase does not appear at this point.
keep your eyes on the blog
greygoose out

friday afternoon .....rant

its almost 4pm - the world is unfolding as it should...if only I had a greygoose on ice with 4 olives...oh well perhaps later. Interest rates are softening as suspected - the current 5 year mortgage rate ranges from 5.05% to 5.09% - with the odd renegade lender offering 4.95-4.99% if the covenant is super strong - The bond market stablilized today and we saw a bounce which should serve to hold the rates steady next week. Will the rates drop below 5% for the fixed 5 year term ?....only the shadow knows.
have a great weekend - get plenty of rest - dont worry about interest rates - the world will still be here on Monday

greygoose - out

roller coaster ride

The stock markets are up and down - but the interest rates are softening as expected. Canadian mortgage lenders are dropping the interest rates on 5 year money back to 5.09% from previous highs of 5.24% as expected. Will the rates continue to fall ? Time will tell - there is still room for further cuts - it will be interesting to see if a lender tries to bring the 5 year rate below %5 which would be a psychological boost to the market place...the spring market will tell - stay tuned
greygoose ....out

deep freeze coming back

well the cold weather hasnt' disappeared yet - it looks like another cold snap on the way for this week - that along with a chill in the market brings to mind the saying - we live in interesting times. stay calm - do not panic - watch the interest rates for signs of a drop - if you have a mortgage coming due in the next 120 days (4 months) - call us at 613-563-5083 or 613-563-5080 - we can protect a rate and if the rates drop you will get the lower rates - its a win win proposition....stay warm and calm....now back to my greygoose....

march 4th - awaiting the new week

last week we saw the 5 year government bonds drop below 4% - and RRSP season is over - we also saw the stock market correct which could lead to stronger bond yields - but I dont think so..I still believe rates will drop back to the 5% range for 5 year terms.
but dont forget - the government and lenders have come out with 40 year amortizations, 100% financing at discounted interest rates - we are seeing the market slow and prices are stable but not rising - therefore we could be headed towards a US recession or dramatic slowdown which will spill over to Canada.
If you are on a floating interest rate - keep your eyes on the bank of canada announcements and on the discounted fixed rates - if interest rates do not drop for prime by July 1- I would look at the fixed interest rates and consider locking in ....time will tell..

In Like a Lion - ...Out Like a Lamb ?

Welcome to March 1st - the final day of RRSP season in Canada -bond rates are still drifting down and the 5 year is now 3.917 while the 10 year is 4.006..this should translate into lower interest rates over the next few weeks. The rates will not fall until the RRSP season is over - as we all know the banks make more money on the investment side than on the mortgage side...and while the RRSP season is in full form - they dont want to concentrate on mortgages - so rates are kept higher to slow the flow. Time will tell if we are correct - but with the recent drop in the bond market - the rates should return to the 5.09% for 5 years from the current 5.24% level.....or even lower...the next move will be to spur the spring real estate market -then a slow down in the summer until the fall.....lets see what happens....
greygoose