Saturday, April 26, 2008

down down down..but for how long ?

the bank of canada dropped their target rate by .50% this week - but the major chartered banks took approx 8 hours to follow suit. It would appear the major banks are trying to signal to the bank of canada - they do not want to drop rates any further - which tends to go along with my conspiracy theory - which says banks hate lending money below 6%.
the spreads on the bankers acceptance puts the current variable rate mortgages into a negative position - and the lenders are saying they must cut the spreads on the variable product.
they have already dropped from prime less .90 to prime less .60 as an average and it will likely drop further to prime less .25 - 40....which is likely a more reasonable spread. The banks got themselves into this mess by constantly trying to out do each other and increasing the discounts until they werent making any money...at least thats what they say.
now is likely still the time to take a variable product with a front end load over 6-12 months - but keep your eyes on the 5 year mortgage rates - currently around 5.50%..if they start moving up lock in and as they say in the movies.....forget about it......

Sunday, April 20, 2008

rates come down - update since March

Well we returned from the Masters - won by Trevor Immelman - as usual it was a great week.
we returned to see that most of the mounds of snow had disappeared - it looks like we will fall approximately 8cm short of the record.
interest rates are still softening on the short end - bank prime is 5.25 and likely to fall another quarter to one half of one percent this week.
the 5 year money is 5,29-5,49
lenders are playing interesting games by giving a bigger discount within the last 30 days - thus mortgage approvals are being switched between lenders 120 -90 - 45 - 30 days prior to closing.
never a dull moment.
it still appears we are heading for a recession - i still think the average consumer has far to much debt and will be forced to consolidate to survive within the next year.
time will tell
greygoose out.