rainy days and sundays always get me down

welcome to eastern canada in the spring - dark dreary rainy...with the hope of sunshine and flowers to follow. Off topic I was amazed to see researchers mentioning - they now believe low levels of vitamin d (sunshine) may be a main cause of the high levels of cancer in the northern hemisphere. I have recently had a dear friend diagnosed with cancer and you always wonder how everything will end up....it sort of puts a perspective on life...nobody gets out alive.
But in living we must realize - time is precious and we must enjoy our lives as best we can.
I am a conservative mortgage person by nature - and a risk taker in the stock market.
having played the market for over 35 years - i have made and lost fortunes - all because i believe it to be a game - my wife often says why dont you cash out...i reply - because its not my money - i am playing with other people's losses and at times they are playing with mine - i get a charge out of seeing the portfolio increase in value - i set goals each year and then try to reach them -always keeping in mind if the value drops below a certain level -i will take some off the table.- I realize i am a very small fish in a large oceans and the professional traders can wipe you out in an instant.- The same holds true for mortgages - lenders can provide ridiculously low rates at times to steal a deal and this is the state of market at this point in time. Some major institutions are playing 'silly bugger' by telling clients to get the file approved and then contact them. They then dont have to do the work and merely undercut the interest rate to steal the approval..this too will pass - but it is frustrating and we usually see this before the market slows......so if you are on a variable rate product keep your eyes open it may be approaching time to consider locking in......donot take the same risks with a mortgage as i would with the stock market - remember it is usually secured against your source of shelter.
Food for thought make sure you analyze and determine - how much risk are you prepared to consider on your decisions......interest rates go up and down - but if you can live with the mortgage payment - then set it and concentrate on paying it off as soon as possible. The interest rate you earn is the equivalent of a tax free investment - so if you are paying 5% it is likely the same as earning 6.5% interest and then paying tax to the government - in today's day and age - its not always easy to earn that return risk free......
greygoose out.

bank of canada - holds rates constant

as suspected the bank held rates steady - but suspicion remains they will move up in the future - time will tell -but as suspected it was much ado about nothing..at least for now.
Lets keep our eyes on the government bonds and see if the yields ease up - or if the dollare backs off a bit....time will tell what happens - the world will unfold as it should.
I still believe gold will move up with oil and other commodities and the US markets will drop - the question is how the canadian economy will react....time will tell

Mortgage update - april 23rd

Welcome to Monday
the sun is up - its 22 degrees celsius (72 fahrenheit) and all is well with the world.
The new bank act took effect and now a conventional mortgage is 80% instead of 75%
therefore you only have to put down 20% as equity in a home to avoid the dreaded cmhc or genworth mortgage insurance.
This should help people looking to consolidate debts and will no doubt help some people to get int to the mortgage market.
tomorrow we will see if I am correct on the Bank of Canada - I do not believe they will increase rates - they will likely increase their inflation outlook and become more hawkish to see if that can influence the market place and slow it down a little....

bank of canada - rate move ?

I believe we will see some response from the bank of canada this week - as they meet - i think on the 24th. Will they move prime up ? - tough to say - there are a lot of signs which would allow them to move up - but the canadian dollar is approaching 90 cents and I am sure they dont want to see if skyrocket.
Mortgage rates have moved up as spreads have declined - i am betting they will leave rates as is..but provide a hawkish outlook for the future..
what will happen in the future - i have this impending feeling of ultimate doom -the stock market will eventually tank after everyone climbs on board and a liquidity crunch will ensue...lets hope i am wrong
greygoose out

back in ottawa - at last

having returned - i have briefly looked at the mortgage scenario. Rates have moved up or are in the process of moving from 5.09 to 5.29% and the perception is the bank of canada will increase the bank rate and therefore the prime.....but i am not so sure - the canadian dollar has moved up and this will cause the bank to question whether they want to move up the bank rate which would in turn increase the canadian dollar even further.

I dont think they will increase the rate.....on april 24th - but its a guessing game - lets see what happens.

returning from the masters

as i return from the masters - i have received notification the bond market has sold off and rates for government bonds have jumped approx 8-10bp. This likely means there is a high possibility the bank of canada will raise its rate when it meets april 24th.
it will depend on their view of inflation risk
we saw the job creation numbers come out stronger than expected and this has caused some people to believe rates will move up.
time will tell.